Predicting the S&P 500’s direction based on oil moves is an empty bet.

Investors have rushed to cash in on the 50% rise in oil prices in the past month. There is also a growing trade in the other direction.

The Iran war could escalate further as President Trump threatens to hit key oil infrastructure if Tehran doesn't drop its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

The war in Iran has sparked a global energy crisis that has rocked markets and sent oil prices surging to their highest level in four years. The chances of a quick resolution appear to be deteriorating as the conflict escalates, as do hopes that the U.S. economy might escape unscathed.

The moves come after the S&P 500 notched its third losing week in a row and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday.

Even if oil prices ease, they won't return to the levels they were at before the war started, according to Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy.

Oil prices traded around the highest levels since 2022 Friday, shrugging off the Trump administration’s earlier decision to temporarily allow the delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude – a waiver aimed at mitigating a surge in prices following its attacks on Iran.

The price of gasoline generally tracks the cost of oil, but there are additional costs that go into making gasoline, including refining, transportation, and state and federal taxes.

If oil remains above $90 a barrel, that could trigger a "domino effect" in global stocks while hitting economic growth, JPMorgan said.