Well, it’s that time again: Millions of Americans are stress-eating while clicking “Refresh” on 538’s presidential forecast, hoping beyond hope that the little red or blue line will have made a tiny ...

An explanation of the methodology for most of 538's current polling averages. Almost since its founding, 538 has published comprehensive averages of polls for a wide variety of questions related to ...

Just how unpopular is President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)? Judging from the headlines and new polls, one might answer, using the pollsters’ terminology, “not very” or “not at all” ...

Mollie J. Cohen has received funding from the Russell Sage Foundation. Geoffrey D. Sheagley receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation. When most people think of their experience of voting in ...

The main way Americans participate in our representative democracy and make their voices heard is by voting and sending elected representatives to do the work of government. But even when they’re not ...