President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday, and both countries pledged to restart tariff and trade talks in the coming days. Trump hailed the call as "positive," with both leaders inviting the other to visit their respective countries.

Tariff increases threaten the US economy and health care costs, impacting managed care affordability and member financial stability.

The US is beginning to see the inflationary impacts of tariffs, Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler has said, and the measures will continue to make prices go up throughout 2025. In a speech in New York on June 5, Kugler said disinflation had slowed while the upside risks to inflation had risen.

The Labor Department has cut back on the inflation data it collects because of the Trump administration’s government hiring freeze, raising concerns among economists about the quality of the inflation figures just as they are being closely watched for the impact of tariffs.

The Fed has held rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range since December, following 100 bps of cuts last year. Money markets price roughly 50 bps of further easing by year-end.

The dampened outlook for the U.S. mirrors a slowdown expected for the global economy, the OECD said, predicting global economic growth to fall from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.

A key U.S. inflation gauge slowed last month as President Donald Trump’s tariffs have yet to noticeably push up prices, while American incomes jumped.

U.S. economic output will fall as a result of President Donald Trump's new tariffs on foreign goods that were in place as of May 13, while also reducing federal budget deficits by $2.8 trillion over a decade,