Iran’s Foreign Ministry is reviewing a US plan conveyed during the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit, and the market for no ...

Iran pulls out of Islamabad peace talks, making ceasefire extension uncertain. Ceasefire by April 21, 2026 at 17.5% YES.

Iran remains undecided on US talks after a naval blockade and cargo ship seizure. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

Iran restricts traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, causing traders to lower expectations. Blockade lift by May 31 at 78% YES.

Iran warns of military retaliation and rejects ceasefire deadlines. No diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 1.5% YES.

Israeli forces uncovered an Iranian plot to sabotage an oil pipeline. Attack on Kharg Island oil terminal by April 30 at 11% ...

Iran declared its missile program non-negotiable, causing the ceasefire-by-April-30 market to drop to 34.5% YES.

Iran's Baghaei dismisses US proposals as unserious, leading to a drop in market confidence; Trump agreeing to Iranian oil ...

Iran strengthens ties with China and Russia amid US tensions. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 1.4% YES.

Iran says it won’t engage in new talks with the US, pushing the ceasefire end by April 21 market to 22% YES, up from 6% ...

Iran is considering a ban on Israeli-linked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between ...

US Marines seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Arabian Sea. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30, 2026 at ...