Israel warned Lebanese civilians against returning home due to Hezbollah ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by April 30 at 100% ...

Iran declared nuclear reserves off the table for negotiation, pushing the odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

Iran rules out transferring enriched uranium, making a deal unlikely. U.S. obtaining uranium by May 31 at 0% YES.

Iran calls ship attack aggression amid rising tensions. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 1.5% YES.

Bitcoin trades at $75K, up 24% from its low, but selling pressure raises concerns; Bitcoin dipping to $60K in April at 99.9% ...

Iran is considering a ban on Israeli-linked ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between ...

Iran says it won’t engage in new talks with the US, pushing the ceasefire end by April 21 market to 22% YES, up from 6% ...

Iran’s Foreign Ministry is reviewing a US plan conveyed during the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit, and the market for no ...

Iran pulls out of Islamabad peace talks, making ceasefire extension uncertain. Ceasefire by April 21, 2026 at 17.5% YES.

US Marines seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Arabian Sea. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30, 2026 at ...

Iran remains undecided on US talks after a naval blockade and cargo ship seizure. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

Iran warns of military retaliation and rejects ceasefire deadlines. No diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 1.5% YES.