united states - What are the differences between these groups …
Jul 19, 2020 · Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that …
Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose …
Oct 26, 2020 · The 538 model says "Very large swings have occurred, if you look back to (for example) Truman v. Dewey. And sometimes something might happen that will completely …
united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and ...
538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data. Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of …
Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
Nov 9, 2020 · 3 538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big …
In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States ...
Aug 18, 2020 · In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
Is there a correlation between a President's approval rating on ...
I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide. …
Why do betting markets disagree with polling - US Election 2024
Oct 24, 2024 · As things stand, betting markets have an implied probability of Trump winning the 2024 election of around 60%. Conversely, most polling has Harris ahead by 3-5%. Why is …
united states - Updated database for polling? - Politics Stack …
Jun 4, 2024 · The ABC 538 source provided in the answer does not seem to be available anymore. If one is interested in polling for the NYC mayoral race, where could one turn other …
What determines the number of electors in each state of the US
Nov 6, 2020 · 7 Mostly the (Decennial) Census Generally, the electoral formula is Electoral Votes = Representatives + Senators. Each state has two Senators, so that's 100 of the 538 total …
Why is Georgia turning blue rapidly? - Politics Stack Exchange
Oct 29, 2020 · 538.com published an article two weeks ago when their election forecast showed Georgia as being ever so slightly blue. In their case, it seemed based mainly on a poll by …